Agreement between OPEC and Russia can not reduce oil price

The agreement between OPEC members (organization of oil-producing countries) and Russia was not enough to relieve the pressure on international oil quotes, which are starting to reflect on the price of Brazilian gasoline.

In this fourth (27), WTI Oil, traded in new York, closed at the highest level since November 2014, reaching US $72.76 per barrel, 3.2% high. Brent, traded in London, had a 1.7% discharge, closing the trading at US $77.62 per barrel.

The two quotes have been high since the announcement of the OPEC agreement with Russia last weekend, faced with uncertainty about the capacity of the world's largest producers to replace the production of Iran and Venezuela.

In addition, supply to the United States faces logistical problems for production runoff and the possibility of loss of up to 360,000 barrels per day with the shutdown of a large project in Canada.

The market believes that OPEC members and Russia will have difficulty expanding their production by more than 1 million barrels per day, volume considered insufficient to withstand the growth of the global economy, in the face of the loss of production of Iran and Venezuela.

The agreement was negotiated between Russia and Saudi Arabia, two of the largest global producers, after pressures from the President of the United States, Donald Trump, who has been charging a drop in international quotes since the beginning of the year.

The negotiations put the Saudi, strategic allies of the United States, alongside the Russians, with whom the Trump government has been having friction–such as the divergences on target bombing in Syria in April, and the exit of the nuclear treaty with Iran in May.

Despite the geopolitical chess that the Moscow-Riad Alliance represents, American analysts celebrated OPEC's decision, and they say it's a win-win.

"The US was already warning that high oil barrel prices would compromise global economic growth," said Frank Verrastro, energy specialist at CSLS (Center for International and Strategic Studies, in the acronym in English).

The timing of the decision can be especially good for Americans, by the promise of lower gasoline prices in the middle of summer (when many families take vacations and travel around the country), and also for Trump, who has worked to elect candidates aligned to their Government in the legislative elections in November.

Gasoline the recent escalation of international quotes, however, has led to increases also in the price of Brazilian gasoline, which exceeds this Thursday (28) The House of R $1.90 per litre in the Petrobras refineries for the first time in 12 days.

For the third time since Friday (23), the state has increased the sales value of the fuel. On this farm, it will be R $1.9027 per liter. The increases interrupt a sequence of falls initiated in early June, when international quotes and exchange rate began to sag.

The price of diesel is frozen by agreement between the Government and the truckers. Source: Well Paraná.

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