The US will overcome Russia and become the world's largest oil producer up to 2023, responding for the most part in the global supply of the commodity, today said the International Energy Agency (IEA) in a report on perspective for the next five years .
US crude oil production must reach the record level of 12.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2023, representing 2 million of BPD high in relation to this year, calculates the IEA, which provides consultancy to governments and companies about industry trends Oil.
Currently, the Russians lead the oil production, with about 11 million of BPD.
The IEA document shows that the US will reach new milestones in the strong expansion of its oil and gas production, thanks to technological advances, improved efficiency and the fragile recovery in oil prices that encourages shale oil producers to broaden their Exploration activities.
Before very dependent on Middle Eastern imports, the US are getting closer to achieving the goal of producing enough crude oil to meet domestic demand for refined products such as gasoline.
Of the 6.4 million of new oil barrels that will be produced daily between today and 2023, almost 60% come from the USA, predicts the IEA.
American influence on global oil markets should also increase, and U.S. oil exports will probably more than double up to 2023, to 4.9 million bpd, according to the IEA. Until 2015, the US did not export oil due to local legislation, but now it is expected that the country will become one of the world's largest exporters in five years.
The IEA report also highlights the change in the role of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a group that traditionally dominates the global commodity markets.
The expectation is that there will be an increase in the production of Brazil, Canada and Norway, all countries that do not belong to OPEC. Along with the US, these three nations will add enough barrels to meet the growing demand by the end of the decade, says the IEA. Within OPEC, only the Middle East is expected to record some increase in production, since other members, such as Venezuela, face internal problems.
The production of Saudi Arabia, the informal leader of OPEC, can reach 12.3 million of bpd in 2023, which means that it will be able to dispute the world leadership with the USA. The Saudis, however, traditionally produce below their ability to maintain their position as key vendors, able to expand or reduce production in line with market needs.
Considering all liquid derivatives, including natural gas, U.S. production is expected to grow to almost 17 million of bpd over the next five years, compared to the 13 million of current bpd, much more than Saudi Arabia or Russia, the IEA provides.
Still, without additional investments outside the US, the advance in production should slow down after 2020, believes the IEA. A strong drop in oil prices since 2014 has crippled investments in the sector outside the US.
The IEA has warned that oil companies will have to start investing again to avoid possible times of scarcity that can drive commodity prices.
Oil consumption will continue to be robust, reducing the difference between demand and production capacity at the lowest level since 2007, when oil prices have gone to record levels higher than US $140 per barrel.
The IEA sees no concrete signs that the demand for oil will reach its peak in the next five years, at a time when it is debating whether efforts to curb the impact of climate change can eventually restrict global oil consumption. The projection is that the demand exceeds 100 million of BPD for the first time in the next year, with advance of 6.9 million of bpd, to 104.7 million of bpd, up to 2023. Source: Exam
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