On November 13th, the International Energy Agency will launch a new analysis, named as World Energy Outlook (WEO), which provides a strategic insight into the significance of current policy decisions and investments for long-term trends. Considered the most reliable source in the world of energy market analysis and projections, the study will address the following question: Changing the energy dynamics to 2040, means that the world can relax with the safety of oil? On the IEA website, Tim Gould, head of Supply Division for World Energy Outlook and Tae-Yoon Kim, industry energy analyst discussed the topic more deeply.
The question discussed by the experts is that the fact that the oil markets are well stocked does not bring the necessary assurance. The fright caused by recent attacks in Saudi Arabia has worked as a major warning and the world still cannot relax as oil safety. Even because the sphere of the market and politics are constantly changing. Will the oil be resistant to all this?
When analyzing possible scenarios for the future, the study did not obtain any satisfactory results, that is, concerns about the safety of oil do not disappear and what will happen to the oil market is still going to influence the global market in Decades.
Deceleration and changes
However, it is known that despite its extreme importance, oil has lost momentum in the global economy: its participation today is 31% lower than 45% of the year 1974. In addition, the amount of oil consumed per unit of economic production also fell one-third since 2000. This data only proves that the growth of oil consumption is not aligned with economic growth.
The WEO-2019 predicts a scenario full of changes, which would cause some decelerations. For example, in 2020, this fall could happen due to drastic changes in the automobile sector that represent a quarter of global oil demand. Moreover, the fact that society is increasingly concerned with combating climate change and air pollution could also cause some transformations.
The large increase in the production of shale oil in the USA, for example, ensured a lower dependence on traditional producers and exporters, since it brought greater diversity to global supplies. Even so, the Middle East remains the largest liquid supplier of crude oil for international markets.
Despite the thuding that the oil can suffer from some changes, the study suggests that it is impossible for oil dependence to disappear quickly. The use of natural resource still continues to grow in much of the world. In addition, they claim that demand changes dramatically to Asia, where imports increase considerably.
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