IEA forecasts for demand in 2021

"It is too far away to know when and how vaccines will allow the resumption of normal life. For now, our projections do not anticipate a significant impact in the first half of 2021", said the IEA (International Energy Agency) in a monthly report released last Thursday (12).

The agency's forecast was made according to the current moment of the oil market, when commodity prices have advanced due to recent news about progress in the vaccine. According to the IEA, "weak demand prospects and rising production in some countries suggest that current fundamentals are too weak to offer firm support for prices." 

For the IEA, even though OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries have modestly reduced their oil inventories for two months in a row until September, storage levels are still not far from the peaks reached in May under the impact of the pandemic. 

The agency also cited the rise in Covid-19 cases in Europe and the United States and new lockdown measures to revise its projection for global oil demand in 2020 by 400,000 barrels per day compared to its previous estimate.


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