The oil exports of Brazil should occupy in 2018 the second place among the products with greater value in Brazilian shipments, driven by a strong increase in prices, according to the forecast of this Tuesday of the Association of Foreign Trade of Brazil (AEB).
The billing with the oil exports of Brazil, which will only be behind the soy-that occupies the first position for the fourth consecutive year-should add up to about 21 billion dollars in 2018, as the production of the pre-salt grows with new players beyond the Petrobras.
Meanwhile, soybean-generated currencies in 2018 were estimated at 28.3 billion dollars.
The forecasts represent a strong increase in comparison with the figures released by AEB at the end of last year, when the association expected to 2018 shipments equivalent to 22.8 billion dollars of soybeans and 16.5 billion oil, respectively.
The iron ore, which has been the second main product of Brazil in recent years, must lose its gas station despite an expected growth in the extraction of Vale, the largest global producer of the raw material of steel.
Ore shipments were projected at 19.2 billion dollars in the year, practically stable before 2017, but with a drop in comparison to the previously predicted 20.4 billion.
The prices of soy and oil, in turn, have risen since the AEB released its preliminary estimates for 2018, with issues related to a drought in Argentina, which brought down the crop of the neighboring country, not to mention that the harvest of Brazil surprised and reached a Remember – the country is the largest global exporter of oilseeds.
More recently, prices in Brazil are being sustained by a commercial war between us and China, which has also driven shipments of the Brazilian product.
In the case of oil, an agreement to reduce the production of large global producers boosted prices.
"In 2018, the concentration in the three main export products will grow even more, with soy, oil and iron ore reaching the record of 30,5%, consolidating the high dependence of commodities in exports and the commercial surplus…", He said to AEB, in a communiqué released by his president José Augusto de Castro.
With the high in the numbers of soybeans and oil, the association also revised Brazil's total export forecast to 224.44 billion dollars versus 218.96 billion dollars in the forecast of the end of last year.
In this way, AEB estimated a surplus of 56.31 billion dollars, compared to 50.34 billion in the projection of the end of last year.
With the high in the estimate of the commercial balance, now the AEB sees a smaller drop in the surplus before last year, of almost 16%, before reduction of 23% predicted at the end of last year.
According to AEB, the strong concentration of exports with commodities reinforces, with numbers, "the overriding need for structural reforms to reduce the cost-Brazil and generate competitiveness in the exports of manufacturing".
"For the fifth consecutive year, Brazilian manufacturing exports will remain stagnant at lower levels of 2007, especially after the Argentine crisis triggered at the end of the first semester," he said.
Among the top ten products exported by Brazil, nine are commodities and only one (automobiles) is manufactured. Source: Exam.
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