Oil: Revenues expected to fall further by the end of the year

The collection with oil royalties and holdings fell 30.8% in May, and is expected to fall another R$ 12 billion by the end of 2020. The data are from a survey of the Brazilian Infrastructure Center (CBIE), based on data from the National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP).

The reason for the fall is the coronavirus pandemic that affected the oil prices and brought an additional shock to Union revenues and governments of producing states and municipalities in 2020. That's because the accounts these governments are under pressure from the notion of lower growth in economy this year, in addition to the additional spending to address the pandemic.

In addition to the 30% drop in royalty collection, in compared to April this year, the decrease in the annual comparison was even greater – 35%. With regard to special holdings, the last available is from the first quarter, when the amount collected for the public coffers 23.5% compared to the same period in 2019.

Given this scenario, CBIE estimates that the collection with royalties and special interests will shrink by more than 20% by 2020. The consultancy projects a total revenue in the year of R$ 43.55 billion, against the R$ 55.95 billion collected last year. That is, R$ 12.4 billion to Less.


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