Following linearly the financial statement of the second quarter, Petrobras must disclose a profit of R $10.8 billion between July and September of this year. These numbers are equivalent to an amount 40 times greater than the same period of 2017. The forecast was disclosed based on the average projections of five institutions consulted by the newspaper Valor Economico.
Not all projections (Itaú BBA and UBS) consider, however, the non-recurring effects of the agreement signed by Petrobras for the closure of investigations by the Department of Justice North American and the Securities & Exchange Commision (SEC) on the Impacts originating from Operation Lava Jato on the international market.
However, not even the billionaire agreement will prevent the company from disclosing its third consecutive quarterly profit. Therefore, it is expected that the oil company will pay quarterly dividends again. Only this year, Petrobras distributed R $1.3 billion in interest on equity, related to the first three months of the year.
UBS assesses that state revenues have had positive impacts due to the high price of the oil barrel in the market and the most favorable exchange rate, and the third quarter of all years is traditionally stronger in the oil and gas sector. These factors will strongly influence the compensation of the fall in Petrobras ' production, which declined in view of the sale of 25% of Campo de Roncador, in the Campos Basin, to the Equinor oil company, and the stopings of the platforms city of Angra dos Reis, City of Maricá, P-25 and P-31.
Itaú BBA, in turn, estimates that the company has expanded its imports and that refineries have operated at an average rate of 80% in the third quarter. This number would be even greater if the Replan fire had not occurred in August, the largest refinery in the country. The incident should generate additional costs to Petrobras, which was induced to import more fuel.
Santander points out that the period also records the debut of the adoption of the hedge for gasoline prices, a mechanism that maintains the freezing of prices for up to 15 days without any losses occurring. According to the bank, despite the decrease in the frequency of adjustments, the EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of Petrobras should be 62% greater equal period of 2017.
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