As if all the geopolitical and economic tensions caused by the slowdown of the economy and the recent bombing of an oil facility in Saudi Arabia were not enough, the oil quotation (Brent) remained high and opened, today (17), around the US $68.00. Despite the seriousness, the impact of this will depend on the time that the high quotes are going to last.
However, the economy is already very fragile and unprepared to face the shock of oil, since the oil sector feeds several sectors and influences the world market in a great way.
This shock would further slow the global demand, which already goes through bad times due to the intense trade dispute of the U.S. and China and would also affect the growth of powers such as Germany, as it would cause a decrease in the manufacturing activity. Even China, considered the largest importer of oil, has recorded the worst monthly performance of industrial production since 2002. Emerging economies such as India and South Africa, for example, are at risk of major capital leaks and currency devaluation.
On the other hand, in an interview with CNBC, Mark Mobius-considered the "Guru of the emerging"-stressed that Brazil can be one of the great beneficiaries with this high, since people would look more to the country and see it with a great producer. However, some analysts think differently and see obstacles to Petrobras in repassing prices.
The point is that if the situation is not normalized, the slowdown in the economy can increase, generating inflationary risks for Brazil and the whole world.
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