Uncertainty in the electoral year can push mega auction to 2019

The auction of the surplus of the costly transfer, so awaited by the market for its magnitude, may not occur in 2018. For analysts, the scenario of political uncertainty can halt the advancement of the event.

"There is a very large risk for the electoral period," says the Constitutionalist and political scientist Marcus Vinícius Macedo, partner of the Nelson Wai office and associated Lawyers. "By the middle of the year, the political authorities will be concerned with the formation of alliances and the feasibility of applications. This brings instability to technical matters. "

The onerous assignment agreement was signed in 2010 between government and Petrobras for the exploration of areas in the pre-salt area without the execution of an auction. Studies have shown that the volumes are much larger than previously predicted and now the surplus will be auctioned.

However, in order for this to happen, it is necessary to reach an agreement with the state, since it was envisaged in agreement a renegotiation of the value paid by the area. The issue has been discussed by a commission formed by representatives of both parties. Both the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) and Petrobras recently stated that the agreement should leave in the near future, but without providing more details.

"The federal government has forced the bar for Petrobras to make the purchase. The company is certainly a creditor, "says the partner and director of the Bureau corporate Governance, Luiz Marcatti. "There is interest in closing the deal, making the auction and bringing money. But it is not known whether the government will be able to honor the compromise. It also depends on the market if there will be interested in the auction, "he scores.

For Pasha, this interest will only manifest itself if there is legal certainty for investors, something still undefined. "We had an impediment to a president, now there is no clarity about the succession. That brings insecurity. An investment of this size will not occur without knowing what the rules and conditions are, "he evaluates.

Oil auction

Last Thursday (29), the 15th round of oil and natural gas bids was held. About R $8 billion were collected with the 22 maritime blocks, a result considered by the market above the expectations. "The auction was very positive, a record of bonus collection," reviews the oil and gas partner of KPMG, Anderson Dutra.

The auction began in a troubled way, with the withdrawal of two blocks, whose location extends into the pre-salt polygon, where the law dictates that exploration can only be done after bidding under production-sharing arrangements.

The big highlight of the round was the ExxonMobil, which scooped eight blocks. "There were speculations at the last auction that the interest of the American company would only be momentary. But the oil company showed that came and stuck roots in Brazil, "points Dutra.

A consortium formed by Exxon, Petrobras and QPI (of Qatar) was responsible for the highest bidding of the auction, by closing the block C-M-789 for about R $2.8 billion.

The round also marked the return to Chevron's Brazil, away from auctions since the accident in the Friar's camp in 2011. It also drew attention to the presence of Wintershall, a German company that for the first time scooped camps in the country. "It was a surprise the appetite demonstrated by the great oil companies. There was no concentration. It was extremely satisfying. "

A tendency of consortia among large companies was also clear. Dutra says that practice is traditional in the global market, but a more recent modality in the country. "With Petrobras ' monopoly, it was difficult to do so here. Now Brazil has learned to work in partnership and hardly see an operator alone: they will be consortia combining synergies. "

The Brazilian state scooped seven blocks, acting in conjunction with large companies such as Exxon and Statoil.

The forecast is that the camps begin to be explored in three years. "Some companies have stated that they intend to anticipate, but the arrematados plots in the previous rounds still need to be explored," says Dutra. "But the most important thing is that, with the auction schedule, it was created predictability. We can always expect a movement from the industry. We stay a long time and we're paying that bill. Now, running all right, we're not going to have any more idleness. " Source: Daily Trade Industry & Service

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